SPCX vs Boeing, Lockheed, RTX: A Defence Prime Comp Set That Almost Works
Defence primes are an obvious comp for SPCX's launch and Starshield revenue. The comparison breaks at Starlink consumer and AI1 — here is what survives.
Defence prime avg P/E
~22×
SPCX P/E
N/M (GAAP loss)
Defence-only SOTP
$120–180B
Where the comp works
For launch services + Starshield defence comms, defence primes (Boeing Defense, Lockheed, RTX, Northrop) are the right multiple set. EV/revenue of 1.5-2.5x and P/E in the low 20s reflect cyclical defence demand with high entry barriers and sticky multi-year contracts. Apply that to SPCX's defence-classified revenue (~$5B run-rate) and you get $120-180B equity value.
Where it breaks: Starlink consumer (telecom multiples, not defence), AI1 (hyperscaler multiples, not defence), and Mars/deep-space optionality (no comp set at all).
Key takeaways
- Defence prime multiples are valid for ~10% of SPCX revenue today
- Starlink and AI1 require completely different multiple sets
- Defence-only SOTP gives $120-180B — useful as a floor
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