Mission Log
Research from the SPCX desk
Long-form analysis on the SpaceX stock story — IPO structure, Starlink unit economics, Starship catalysts and AI1. Every post is built to make you a sharper SPCX trader, not to fill a feed.
Anatomy of the SpaceX IPO: How SPCX Priced, Popped and Settled
Inside the December 2025 SpaceX IPO: how the $85 pricing was set, what drove the first-day pop, and what the order book tells us about who owns SPCX now.
IPO price
$85.00
First-day close
$112.40
Raise
$18.7B
Starlink ARPU: The Number That Moves SPCX
Why average revenue per Starlink subscriber is the single most market-moving line in SpaceX earnings — and how to model where it goes next.
8 min readThe Starship Flight 15 Trading Playbook
Flight 15 on July 2 is the highest-beta event on the SPCX calendar. Here is the scenario map, the historical price reactions, and how desks are positioning.
7 min readAI1 Orbital Data Centres, Explained for Investors
Solar-powered GPU clusters in sun-synchronous orbit sound like science fiction. Here is the actual unit economics case — and what has to go right for AI1 to justify its $95B in sum-of-parts models.
10 min readSPCX Lock-Up Expiry: What June 2026 Means for the Float
180 days after the IPO, insider and early-investor shares unlock this month. Here is the supply math, what history says about mega-cap lock-up expiries, and the scenarios that matter.
6 min readHow Launch Cadence Converts Into SPCX Revenue
148 flights are manifested for 2026. A launch-by-launch look at how cadence becomes revenue, margin and — most importantly — falling unit cost across every SpaceX business line.
8 min readEvent-driven alerts
Trade the next launch — not the last headline
Launch alerts, earnings breakdowns and SPCX trade ideas before key events. No generic spam — only signals tied to the mission calendar.