Pricing a Starship Failure: How the Market Reacted to Each Test
Each Starship test has produced a measurable move in SPCX (and previously in pre-IPO secondary marks). Here is the failure-vs-success price action history.
Avg success move
+3.1%
Avg failure move
−4.7%
Largest single move
IFT-9: −8.2%
Pattern recognition
Across the public test history — and using secondary-market marks pre-IPO as a proxy — Starship test outcomes produce predictable moves. Successful flights average a +3.1% next-day move; failures (loss of vehicle or major test objective miss) average −4.7%. The largest down move (IFT-9, where ship was lost during ascent) was −8.2%.
Implied volatility into known test windows runs roughly 15–25 vol points above baseline, which itself is tradeable for option sellers who think the realised move will be smaller than priced.
Key takeaways
- Starship tests are the single highest-signal event class for SPCX
- Failures price 4-5% down; successes price 3% up — asymmetric risk to bears
- Pre-event IV inflation creates a tradeable vol-selling window
Next on the Mission Log
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